— PunditPoorly · All-In Podcast —
Bestie Buys
Every public-market call the besties have made on the pod, translated mechanically into a synthetic portfolio. Every quote, every receipt, audited by the audience.
ALL-INPodcast415 episodes scored · rubric v2.3 / engine v5.4 · last update 7/29/2026 · methodology
All-In Group return
+174.6%
on $400K deployed
Net PnL
+$698K
vs starting bankroll
Predictions graded
341
4 main hosts + guests
Open positions
8
3 shorts · 17 expiries
The Takeaway
Under the published default (BALANCED methodology), the 4-bestie aggregate returned +174.6% on $400K deployed across the 164 calls that clear its conviction bar (of 341 graded). Per host: Palihapitiya leads at +152.5% (84 calls); Sacks +90.3%, Friedberg +84.6%; Calacanis trails at +79.5% (32 calls). Each host's optimal methodology differs — toggle presets on BYOB to compare concentrated, let-it-ride, and other rubrics against the BALANCED default.
Aggregate Portfolio vs SPY — 1476 trading days · shared $400K bucket · BALANCED book
Daily walk-forward mark-to-market · SPY buy-and-hold benchmark on the same $400K
Host portfolio$1.1MSPY mirror$947K+$151K (+16.0%)
Aggregate Composition — 8 open positions across all 4 hosts · BALANCED book
Top Holdings · 9 slices
GOOGL$148,13313.5%
AAPL$59,6755.4%
SPY$55,1745.0%
MGM$52,7674.8%
EA$43,2713.9%
AMZN$29,4372.7%
PYPL$28,4152.6%
TLN$25,6322.3%
SPY (cash bucket)$655,79759.7%
The Books — BALANCED methodology · click any host to drill in
Trade Stats — every host pooled · 137 cycles
A “trade” = one INITIATE → close round-trip on a single ticker. Flips count separately (Chamath's META bear → bull = two trades). This ledger is representative of the core besties plus guest initiates (Ackman, Loeb, Arora, and other one-off appearances); the per-host table below lets you see who's actually beating the field.
Total trades
137
Win rate
60%
Avg P&L / trade
+$890
+24.7%
Median P&L %
+7.2%
typical trade
Avg holding
669d
median 524d
Avg winner
+$2,269
Avg loser
-$1,166
showing 17 of 17 hosts
| Gavin Baker | 4 | 100% | +$9,707 | +238.5% | 1.3y | +$29,507 | -$1,330 |
| Antonio Gracias | 1 | 100% | +$2,476 | +108.9% | 1.3y | +$2,476 | -$2,476 |
| Reid Hoffman | 1 | 100% | +$3,002 | +84.0% | 1.7y | +$3,002 | -$3,002 |
| Thomas Laffont | 3 | 100% | +$765 | +53.9% | 1.2y | +$1,148 | -$81 |
| Travis Kalanick | 2 | 100% | +$693 | +48.6% | 1.3y | +$1,213 | -$174 |
| Stanley Druckenmiller | 1 | 100% | +$3,385 | +45.3% | 2.0y | +$3,385 | -$3,385 |
| David Friedberg | 16 | 69% | +$1,332 | +37.7% | 2.0y | +$6,982 | -$3,250 |
| Jason Calacanis | 14 | 64% | +$1,237 | +31.7% | 2.5y | +$5,378 | -$1,750 |
| Ray Dalio | 2 | 50% | +$1,244 | +31.1% | 1.3y | +$2,535 | -$46 |
| Keith Rabois | 1 | 100% | +$470 | +23.7% | 1.4y | +$470 | -$470 |
| David Sacks | 24 | 58% | +$752 | +20.6% | 2.1y | +$9,618 | -$3,789 |
| Elon Musk | 1 | 100% | +$597 | +20.1% | 253d | +$597 | -$597 |
| Brad Gerstner | 10 | 50% | +$337 | +10.7% | 1.9y | +$7,178 | -$3,960 |
| Chamath Palihapitiya | 52 | 52% | +$182 | +4.9% | 1.7y | +$11,164 | -$4,125 |
| Mark Benioff | 1 | 100% | +$57 | +1.6% | 6d | +$57 | -$57 |
| Cathie Wood | 3 | 0% | -$719 | -19.1% | 219d | +$-149 | -$1,519 |
| Joe Lonsdale | 1 | 0% | -$400 | -19.6% | 1.4y | +$-400 | -$400 |
The Buys — aggregate top open positions
| Ticker | Hosts | Position | PnL | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 2 hosts | $148,133 | +$6,710 | +5% |
| AAPL | 2 hosts | $59,675 | +$4,461 | +8% |
| SPY | 2 hosts | $55,174 | +$252 | +0% |
| MGM | 2 hosts | $52,767 | $2,227 | -4% |
| EA | 1 host | $43,271 | +$1,649 | +4% |
| AMZN | 1 host | $29,437 | +$2,791 | +10% |
| PYPL | 1 host | $28,415 | +$892 | +3% |
| TLN | 1 host | $25,632 | $1,883 | -7% |
The Briefs — latest fires · core besties only
INITIATE · bull2026-07-24 · GOOGL · an All-In host · MID
“Do you know what Google's 25 year average return on invested capital has been since going public?... 32%... When you are a machine and a group of people and a business model that compounds money at 32% over [a] 20 year average, you give these guys the benefit of the doubt. These …”
INITIATE · bull2026-07-24 · GOOGL · an All-In host · MID
“If you want to bet against Google's deployment of capital into infrastructure because you'd rather have them give you cash for your shares today, you shouldn't own the stock. Someone else will buy it. I think Google wins in a lot of different ways... just on GCP, I think that the…”
INITIATE · bull2026-07-24 · GOOGL · an All-In host · V·LOW
“So I looked at this and I said, well, this seems like a really good use of capital. Instead of just giving dividends, like building out this infrastructure, to me sounds like an investment in the future. Seems like a buy signal to me. But the market is obviously disappointed. Why…”
INITIATE · conditional2026-07-24 · SPY · an All-In host · LOW
“Now, there's another important thing here, which is if the United States government intervenes, it will tank the stock market. Okay. Period. Not debatable. Now you can debate which companies get tanked, and we can probably play that scenario out. But for example, if they said no …”
INITIATE · bull2026-07-18 · AAPL · an All-In host · LOW
“M7 Ultra is going to support as much as 1.5 terabytes. That's double what they're already supporting. So if you think about frontier models... this is like an opus level model running on your Mac studio... I think Apple is a screaming buy right now. And I just, not financial advi…”
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Nobody asked. We ledger anyway. · Bestie Buys is a product of PunditPoorly · part of Standard Poorly
— More depth available —
Across the whole cohort, here's what Analyst + Trader unlock —
Analyst$19/mo founder
- Every trade, every ticker — entry date, entry price, sizing, exit, realized P&L. The audit trail behind the headline number.
- Win rate, average P&L, biggest winner, ugliest loser, capital deployed per ticker. Stop wondering whether the +60% headline is one moonshot or a real pattern.
- Transcript receipts on every row — the exact quote, episode title, timestamp. Verify we didn't take the call out of context.
- Off-the-books table — commentary-only mentions that didn't meet our INITIATE rubric. The "honorable mentions" we deliberately don't count.
- Hot/cold streak analysis — was the edge real, or did wins just cluster? Drawdown stress test — what's the worst stretch you'd have had to hold through?
- BYOB — swap conservative / balanced / let-it-ride methodologies and watch the same host's numbers change under each lens.
Trader$79/mo founder
- Everything in Analyst, plus:
- Market-state overlay — does this host outperform when markets are calm, when they panic, or both? Per-host breakdown across calm / normal / high-fear tape (so you can see whether the edge holds when it counts, or just in easy markets).
- Alerts when a host opens, trims, or closes a position — email, SMS, WhatsApp, webhook. Stop refreshing the page.
- Compound alert rules — "Chamath initiates a new position AND markets are high-fear AND it's an AI name" → fire. Build the exact setups you want to act on.
- CSV / API export of every ledger — bring it into your own spreadsheet or model.
- MCP server for Claude Desktop / Cursor / Claude Code (coming soon) — pull this data straight into your AI workflow and ask it questions.
- Real-time intraday quotes on open positions — see the host's current book move tick-by-tick during market hours.
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