— Composite indices · weighted blends —

Four big questions, one number each.

Each composite collapses 5–7 constituent indicators into one 0-100 score. We use each constituent's historical percentile as the normalized contribution; weights are editorial judgment calls and documented in the breakdown below each card.

SP Fear Composite

INSUFFICIENT DATA

—/ 100

Weighted blend of conventional fear gauges. CNN F&G dominates the weighting because it is itself a meta-composite. VIX and the junk/IG spread (HYG/LQD) carry the remaining weight. A reading of 100 means peak risk-off (every constituent at its 100th historical percentile); 0 means peak calm.

Constituent breakdown

CNN Fear & Greed40% wt—

crypto_fear_greed20% wt—

vix20% wt—

hyg_lqd_spread10% wt—

move10% wt—

5 constituents skipped (no recent data); their weight redistributed pro-rata.

SP Consumer Pulse

INSUFFICIENT DATA

—/ 100

Aggregate of consumer-side signals: BetterHelp app rank (mental-health spend), Google Trends "Recession", "stock market crash", consumer-discretionary stock activity, and credit-card balance growth. 100 = consumer is most active / confident; 0 = retrenchment.

Constituent breakdown

wiki_recession20% wt—

wiki_stock_market_crash15% wt—

banking_total_loans20% wt—

tsa_throughput20% wt—

consumer_credit_total15% wt—

kastle_10city_avg10% wt—

6 constituents skipped (no recent data); their weight redistributed pro-rata.

SP Macro Stress Index

INSUFFICIENT DATA

—/ 100

Composite reading for broad macro stress: Fed balance sheet trajectory, 2y/10y yields, USD index, breakeven inflation, financial-conditions index. 100 = peak stress (yields screaming, USD spiking, breakevens dislocated); 0 = benign.

Constituent breakdown

stl_fed_financial_stress30% wt—

treasury_2y15% wt—

treasury_10y10% wt—

dxy15% wt—

breakeven_10y10% wt—

fed_balance_sheet10% wt—

hyg_lqd_spread10% wt—

7 constituents skipped (no recent data); their weight redistributed pro-rata.

SP Chaos Index

INSUFFICIENT DATA

—/ 100

Pure satire layer. Aggregates astrology + folk-finance signals into one number. Has no statistical claim to predict anything; published as a parody of meta-composites that DO claim to predict things. A reading of 100 means we're in maximum cosmic alignment with bearishness as defined by retrogrades + droughts; 0 means the universe is calm.

Constituent breakdown

days_since_liam_neeson_movie30% wt—

days_since_last_mcrib20% wt—

mercury_retrograde20% wt—

days_since_beyonce_album15% wt—

days_since_drake_album15% wt—

5 constituents skipped (no recent data); their weight redistributed pro-rata.