FOMC meeting (Powell announcement)
3.1%historical avg in the quarter leading up to past events
+8.9%actual SPY move so far (29 days into the window)
already exceeded the historical move
— Standard signals· what's signaling now —
view:
The standard tier — macro, credit, commodities, equities, technicals. Indicators that fired in the last 120 days with the strongest historical track record. Sorted by deviation-from-chance × recency. The kind of data a Bloomberg terminal would carry. Browse the full universe →
Grid Demand — Northwest region
1,198,781↑ 28%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 Northwest region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 5 days ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -2.0% over the next trading quarter — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 61% of the time.
+0.02%SPY 1 d into the 3 mo window so far
TRACKING WITH HISTORY
↑53%
+0.05%
↑54%
+0.21%
↓55%
−0.54%
↓61%
−2.0%
51%
−1.0%
51%
−1.7%
Grid Demand — California region
957,493↑ 25%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 California region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 5 days ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -4.7% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 58% of the time.
+0.02%SPY 1 d into the 1 yr window so far
↑53%
+0.03%
↓55%
−0.15%
↓58%
−0.53%
↓56%
−1.1%
↓57%
−2.3%
↓58%
−4.7%
Data-Center Alley Demand (PJM)
2,722,882↑ 15%vs ~6 weeks ago
PJM interconnection electricity demand (MWh/day) — includes Dominion-VA "Data-Center Alley," the densest data-center corridor on earth; a proxy for AI/data-center capex load growth.
last fired 4 weeks ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -15.1% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 82% of the time.
+1.4%SPY 1 wk into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓55%
−0.06%
↓62%
−0.32%
↓69%
−1.3%
↓76%
−3.8%
↓78%
−7.3%
↓82%
−15.1%
— Newsletter · Standard Poorly dispatch —
Timely market signals you won't find elsewhere. Plus the occasional “Poorly”-proven correlation we tripped over in the data — pork futures → McRib launches → Bitcoin, that kind of thing. Cadence: when the data warrants it. Usually weekly.
Grid Demand — New York region
473,036↑ 13%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 New York region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 2 weeks ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -2.5% over the next trading quarter — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 64% of the time.
−0.98%SPY 1 wk into the 3 mo window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
51%
−0.01%
↓53%
−0.17%
↓59%
−0.98%
↓64%
−2.5%
↓53%
−1.6%
↓54%
−3.4%
Grid Demand — Central region
1,173,456↑ 28%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 Central region (SPP corridor) electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 8 days ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -0.76% over the next trading month — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 58% of the time.
−0.12%SPY 1 d into the 1 mo window so far
51%
+0.03%
↓54%
−0.13%
↓58%
−0.76%
↓57%
−1.6%
48%
−1.6%
48%
−2.7%
Grid Demand — New England region
316,685↓ 0%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 New England region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 4 weeks ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -2.6% over the next trading quarter — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 64% of the time.
+1.4%SPY 1 wk into the 3 mo window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
51%
+0.03%
48%
−0.12%
↓58%
−0.88%
↓64%
−2.6%
↓54%
−1.3%
48%
−2.2%
— Poorly · signals nobody else is tracking —
Weather, sports outcomes, App Store ranks, Mercury retrograde, McRib comebacks. Same statistical treatment as Standard — just signals other publications don't bother to track. Some have edge, some don't; we publish either way.
Stormy conditions in the forecast for major US metros tomorrow.
87°F avg high20% precip chance67% metros sunny
Today86°Tomorrow87°Fri89°Sat88°Sun87°Mon87°Tue88°
We track historical SPY response to national weather patterns via US National Precipitation (pop-weighted). Forecast above is editorial framing, not a trade signal. See the indicator for the historical pattern + fire history.
US National Precipitation (pop-weighted)
1.41↑ 19%vs ~6 weeks ago
Pop-weighted mean of daily precipitation across top-30 metros (mm).
last fired 3 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged +7.7% over the next year — moving in the same direction as the signal 75% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+5.6%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
↑54%
+0.03%
↑57%
+0.15%
↑63%
+0.61%
↑67%
+1.9%
↑70%
+3.7%
↑75%
+7.7%
Wikipedia: "Recession"
528.0↑ 9%vs ~6 weeks ago
Daily pageviews on the Wikipedia Recession article.
last fired 2 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -6.5% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 70% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
−1.3%SPY 1 mo into the 1 yr window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
↓55%
−0.03%
↓58%
−0.18%
↓64%
−0.62%
↓67%
−1.6%
↓70%
−3.7%
↓70%
−6.5%
Wikipedia: "Stock market crash"
560.0↑ 20%vs ~6 weeks ago
Daily pageviews anxiety leading indicator.
last fired 6 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -5.8% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 68% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+6.8%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓52%
−0.04%
↓55%
−0.07%
↓61%
−0.38%
↓61%
−0.85%
↓61%
−1.9%
↓68%
−5.8%
Dallas Precipitation
Total daily precipitation (Dallas, mm).
last fired 2 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -4.9% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 67% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
−2.9%SPY 1 mo into the 1 yr window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
↓53%
−0.02%
↓54%
−0.10%
↓58%
−0.38%
↓61%
−1.1%
↓63%
−2.3%
↓67%
−4.9%
Denver Precipitation
Total daily precipitation (Denver, mm).
last fired 2 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -4.9% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 66% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+0.31%SPY 1 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓53%
−0.02%
↓55%
−0.11%
↓59%
−0.47%
↓61%
−1.2%
↓63%
−2.4%
↓66%
−4.9%
Days since last Liam Neeson movie
1,259↑ 4%vs ~6 weeks ago
Decay model Liam Neeson cadence proxy.
last fired 6 months ago
When this fires, SPY averaged -6.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 66% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+4.1%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
49%
−0.03%
↓55%
−0.18%
↓59%
−0.78%
↓64%
−2.4%
↓64%
−4.0%
↓66%
−6.0%