VOL. I · NO. 119 · standardpoorly.comTUE · SEP 29 · 2026FORWARD HORIZON · 1 d / 1 wk / 1 mo / 3 mo
STANDARD Poorly
"All the correlations that are barely fit to print"
● LIVE FORECASTSP-18542-Year Treasury Yield (daily)+12% (30d)·252d →−6.0%◀ 64%SP-18573-Month Treasury Yield (daily)+6% (30d)·252d →−5.0%◀ 63%SP-217110Y Treasury Yield+7% (30d)·126d →−2.6%◀ 58%SP-2761Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spread (over 10Y)-11% (30d)·126d →−1.2%◀ 58%SP-191030-Year Treasury Yield (daily)+2% (30d)·126d →−2.5%◀ 60%SP-2268Grid Demand — California region-19% (30d)·126d →−2.4%◀ 58%SP-3114Data-Center Alley Demand (PJM)-3% (30d)·252d →−15.2%◀ 82%SP-2217Grid Demand — New England region-12% (30d)·63d →−2.5%◀ 64%
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ALL-IN
Featured · Bestie Buys · pundit-portfolio tracker
3 of 4 besties beat SPY· +6.9pp aggregate vs SPYOpen the books →

Every public-market call the All-In Podcast hosts have made for six years. Translated to a portfolio. Audited.

Each host gets their own synthetic book. We use the date+price they actually spoke on, not the pod release date. We exclude jokes and OBSERVE-only mentions. Every record on the books has a 🚩 button so readers can flag misattribution — the audit trail is the brand.

Sum of books vs SPY
+6.9pp
3 of 4 hosts beat SPY individually · sum-of-independent-books · BALANCED methodology
Net P&L
+$441K
on $400K deployed
Public-market calls graded
317
across 6 years of pod episodes
History
2020 →
updated 2026-09-29
Plus we track Brad Gerstner (the "5th bestie") on his own pod BG2 Buys — and roll all of them into a 6-host cross-pod portfolio (+143pp under BALANCED). Toggle methodologies on the BYOB chooser.
Independent · not affiliated with All-In Podcast · editorial / nominative use

— Market news —live

Live broad-market headlines from Alpaca / Benzinga. Refreshes every 60 seconds.
No recent headlines for SPY, QQQ, IWM, GLD in the last 7 days.
— Today's movers —full list →
Gainers
  • PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc.+4.63%
  • CPBThe Campbell's Company+3.46%
  • ZSZscaler, Inc.+3.28%
Losers
  • MDBMongoDB, Inc.-18.46%
  • CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc.-7.88%
  • DASHDoorDash, Inc.-7.74%
Industrial Pulse · hedge-fund alt-data · headline free, depth paid

EPA hazardous-waste tonnage tracks production
in 7 sectors of US industry.

We pull every US hazardous-waste manifest and aggregate by parent ticker. The result tracks each ticker's production output — monthly, in near-real-time — with 92% directional agreement, Spearman ρ = +0.635, p < 0.001 across the 13-ticker validated set. Hedge funds pay $10–50K/yr for normalized equivalents. We make the full history readable free; Analyst tier gets each new monthly release 7 days early (when EPA drops manifests, paid sees day-0, free sees day-7) plus the composite index, per-facility breakdown, and >1σ alerts.

Flagship tickers
Open the indicator family →

— Standard signals· what's signaling now —

view:

The standard tier — macro, credit, commodities, equities, technicals. Indicators that fired in the last 120 days with the strongest historical track record. Sorted by deviation-from-chance × recency. The kind of data a Bloomberg terminal would carry. Browse the full universe →

Standardcurrencies_ratesSP-1854

2-Year Treasury Yield (daily)

4.67↑ 12%vs ~6 weeks ago
Short-end of the curve Fed-policy expectations.
last fired 13 days ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -6.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 64% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+1.1%SPY 1 d into the 1 yr window so far
48%
−0.03%
1 d
↓54%
−0.12%
1 wk
↓56%
−0.47%
1 mo
↓59%
−1.5%
3 mo
↓60%
−3.1%
6 mo
↓64%
−6.0%
1 yr
Standardcurrencies_ratesSP-1857

3-Month Treasury Yield (daily)

4.12↑ 6%vs ~6 weeks ago
Bill rate closely tracks Fed Funds.
last fired 12 days ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -5.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 63% of the time.

Signature window~9 mo(cell shown is 1 yr — Analyst tier shows the precise horizon)
−0.12%SPY 1 d into the 1 yr window so far
49%
−0.01%
1 d
↑53%
+0.03%
1 wk
↓55%
−0.24%
1 mo
↓56%
−0.66%
3 mo
↓58%
−1.4%
6 mo
↓63%
−5.0%
1 yr
Standardcurrencies_ratesSP-2171

10Y Treasury Yield

5.00↑ 7%vs ~6 weeks ago
10-year US Treasury yield (in %).
last fired 13 days ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -2.6% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 58% of the time.

Signature window~4 mo(cell shown is 6 mo — Analyst tier shows the precise horizon)
+1.1%SPY 1 d into the 6 mo window so far
49%
−0.02%
1 d
↓52%
−0.09%
1 wk
↓53%
−0.31%
1 mo
↓56%
−1.1%
3 mo
↓58%
−2.6%
6 mo
↓58%
−4.4%
1 yr
— Newsletter · Standard Poorly dispatch —

Timely market signals you won't find elsewhere. Plus the occasional “Poorly”-proven correlation we tripped over in the data — pork futures → McRib launches → Bitcoin, that kind of thing. Cadence: when the data warrants it. Usually weekly.

Standardcurrencies_ratesSP-2761

Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spread (over 10Y)

1.44↓ 11%vs ~6 weeks ago
Moody's Baa corporate yield minus 10Y Treasury. Classic risk-premium / credit-stress gauge; widens before/into recessions.
last fired 13 days ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -1.2% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 58% of the time.

Signature window6 mo
−1.1%SPY 1 d into the 6 mo window so far
49%
−0.01%
1 d
↓53%
−0.09%
1 wk
↓55%
−0.26%
1 mo
↓56%
−0.67%
3 mo
↓58%
−1.2%
6 mo
↓56%
−1.9%
1 yr
Standardcurrencies_ratesSP-1910

30-Year Treasury Yield (daily)

5.29↑ 2%vs ~6 weeks ago
Long-end of the curve long-term inflation + term premium.
last fired 3 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -2.5% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 60% of the time.

Signature window6 mo
+0.63%SPY 1 wk into the 6 mo window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
50%
−0.02%
1 d
↓53%
−0.09%
1 wk
↓53%
−0.38%
1 mo
↓57%
−1.2%
3 mo
↓60%
−2.5%
6 mo
↓57%
−4.8%
1 yr
Standardenergy_activitySP-2268

Grid Demand — California region

818,110↓ 19%vs ~6 weeks ago
EIA-930 California region electricity demand (MWh/day).
last fired 3 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -2.4% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 58% of the time.

+0.63%SPY 1 wk into the 6 mo window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↑53%
+0.03%
1 d
↓55%
−0.16%
1 wk
↓58%
−0.53%
1 mo
↓56%
−1.1%
3 mo
↓58%
−2.4%
6 mo
↓58%
−4.7%
1 yr

— Poorly · signals nobody else is tracking —

Weather, sports outcomes, App Store ranks, Mercury retrograde, McRib comebacks. Same statistical treatment as Standard — just signals other publications don't bother to track. Some have edge, some don't; we publish either way.

☁ Weather outlook · 20 metros · pop-weightedvia NOAA NWS · forecast as of Sep 29, 10 AM

Stormy conditions in the forecast for major US metros tomorrow.

80°F avg high16% precip chance64% metros sunny
Today79°Tomorrow80°Thu81°Fri81°Sat78°Sun76°Mon75°

We track historical SPY response to national weather patterns via US National Precipitation (pop-weighted). Forecast above is editorial framing, not a trade signal. See the indicator for the historical pattern + fire history.

PoorlyweatherSP-6350

US National Precipitation (pop-weighted)

1.41↑ 19%vs ~6 weeks ago
Pop-weighted mean of daily precipitation across top-30 metros (mm).
last fired 5 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged +7.8% over the next year — moving in the same direction as the signal 75% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+5.6%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
↑54%
+0.03%
1 d
↑57%
+0.15%
1 wk
↑63%
+0.61%
1 mo
↑67%
+1.9%
3 mo
↑70%
+3.7%
6 mo
↑75%
+7.8%
1 yr
Poorlylifestyle_searchSP-4085

Wikipedia: "Recession"

528.0↑ 9%vs ~6 weeks ago
Daily pageviews on the Wikipedia Recession article.
last fired 4 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -6.5% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 70% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+1.7%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓55%
−0.03%
1 d
↓58%
−0.18%
1 wk
↓64%
−0.62%
1 mo
↓67%
−1.6%
3 mo
↓70%
−3.7%
6 mo
↓70%
−6.5%
1 yr
Poorlylifestyle_searchSP-5032

Wikipedia: "Stock market crash"

560.0↑ 20%vs ~6 weeks ago
Daily pageviews anxiety leading indicator.
last fired 8 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -5.9% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 68% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+6.8%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓52%
−0.04%
1 d
↓55%
−0.07%
1 wk
↓61%
−0.38%
1 mo
↓61%
−0.87%
3 mo
↓61%
−2.0%
6 mo
↓68%
−5.9%
1 yr
PoorlyweatherSP-4984

Dallas Precipitation

Total daily precipitation (Dallas, mm).
last fired 4 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -4.9% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 67% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+2.1%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓53%
−0.02%
1 d
↓54%
−0.10%
1 wk
↓58%
−0.38%
1 mo
↓61%
−1.1%
3 mo
↓64%
−2.4%
6 mo
↓67%
−4.9%
1 yr
PoorlyweatherSP-5032

Denver Precipitation

Total daily precipitation (Denver, mm).
last fired 4 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -5.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 66% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+3.9%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
↓53%
−0.02%
1 d
↓55%
−0.11%
1 wk
↓59%
−0.47%
1 mo
↓61%
−1.2%
3 mo
↓63%
−2.4%
6 mo
↓66%
−5.0%
1 yr
PoorlychaosSP-3150

Days since last Liam Neeson movie

1,311↑ 3%vs ~6 weeks ago
Decay model Liam Neeson cadence proxy.
last fired 7 weeks ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -6.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 66% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
−1.4%SPY 1 mo into the 1 yr window so far
EXCEEDED HISTORY
49%
−0.03%
1 d
↓55%
−0.18%
1 wk
↓59%
−0.78%
1 mo
↓64%
−2.4%
3 mo
↓64%
−4.0%
6 mo
↓66%
−6.0%
1 yr