— Metro · NY · 6 indicators —

New York City

Weather (Central Park), air quality, office occupancy, and any local-economy signals we publish for the NYC metro.

— air quality (1) —

Standardair_qualitySP-0754

NYC Daily AQI

2.00↓ 95%vs ~6 weeks ago

Daily Air Quality Index New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA.

last fired 4 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -5.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 63% of the time.

Signature window1 yr

+3.9%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far

OPPOSITE OF HISTORY

↓52%

−0.04%

1 d

↓54%

−0.10%

1 wk

↓57%

−0.50%

1 mo

↓61%

−1.5%

3 mo

↓61%

−2.4%

6 mo

↓63%

−5.0%

1 yr

— macro (1) —

StandardmacroSP-4725

Kastle Office Occupancy New York (weekly)

NYC office occupancy via Kastle keycard swipes, % of Feb-2020 baseline.

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day.

50%

—

1 d

50%

—

1 wk

50%

—

1 mo

50%

—

3 mo

50%

—

6 mo

50%

—

1 yr

— weather (4) —

PoorlyweatherSP-5453

NYC Snowfall

Total daily snowfall at Central Park (cm).

When this fires, SPY averaged -6.9% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 73% of the time.

Signature window1 yr

↓54%

−0.03%

1 d

↓57%

−0.16%

1 wk

↓62%

−0.62%

1 mo

↓65%

−1.7%

3 mo

↓68%

−3.4%

6 mo

↓73%

−6.9%

1 yr

PoorlyweatherSP-5219

NYC Precipitation

0.00↓ 100%vs ~6 weeks ago

Total daily precipitation at Central Park (mm).

last fired 9 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -4.0% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 63% of the time.

Signature window1 yr

−4.0%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far

EXCEEDED HISTORY

↓52%

−0.03%

1 d

↓54%

−0.07%

1 wk

↓57%

−0.30%

1 mo

↓58%

−0.92%

3 mo

↓61%

−1.9%

6 mo

↓63%

−4.0%

1 yr

PoorlyweatherSP-5467

NYC Sunshine Duration

46,800↑ 8%vs ~6 weeks ago

Daily sunshine duration at Central Park (seconds).

last fired 1.8 years ago

Historically, on fire days, SPY averaged +2.1% over the next year — moving in the same direction as the signal 57% of the time.

Signature window~9 mo(cell shown is 1 yr — Analyst tier shows the precise horizon)

+3.8%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire

EXCEEDED HISTORY

51%

+0.01%

1 d

↑52%

+0.04%

1 wk

↑53%

+0.11%

1 mo

↑54%

+0.32%

3 mo

↑55%

+0.79%

6 mo

↑57%

+2.1%

1 yr

PoorlyweatherSP-5035

NYC Temperature (Central Park)

18.2↑ 52%vs ~6 weeks ago

Mean daily temperature at Central Park (C, Open-Meteo ERA5).

last fired 4 months ago

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading quarter.

+2.9%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire

OPPOSITE OF HISTORY

50%

−0.01%

1 d

49%

−0.04%

1 wk

49%

−0.07%

1 mo

↓52%

−0.15%

3 mo

48%

−0.17%

6 mo

52%

+0.00%

1 yr

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