Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (weekly)
6,711,495↑ 2%vs ~6 weeks ago
Total assets on the Fed's H.4.1 liquidity proxy, released Thursdays.
last fired 5.8 years ago
Historically, on fire days, SPY averaged -2.1% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 65% of the time.
Signature window1 yr
+8.8%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
48%
−0.03%
↓55%
−0.13%
↓57%
−0.50%
↓61%
−1.2%
↓63%
−1.4%
↓65%
−2.1%