StandardPoorly
— Sector · serious —

Macro & Rates

Fed balance sheet, treasury curve, USD, breakevens.

The macro stack the rates desk watches every morning. Fed funds rate, Fed balance-sheet trajectory (the QT/QE read), the full treasury curve (3m/2y/10y/30y), the 2-10 yield curve, breakeven inflation, USD index (DXY), and the St. Louis Fed financial-stress index. CPI/PCE inflation data sit here too. These move slowly but everything else dances to them.
Analyst · previewYou're seeing the public read on the Macro & Rates sector. Analyst unlocks the full firing history for every indicator here + alerts when a roster ticker breaks out + the roster past the top 12 by market cap. Trader adds intraday quotes across the whole roster + the cross-sector co-fire matrix + the API / MCP feed.Compare tiers →
the verdict —
1 of 12 tracked tickers in macro & rates are positive on the week. 23 of 24 mapped indicators are firing. Biggest 7-day mover: TLT -1.8%.
The Sector Mood Ring
mood
COLD
1↑ · 0— · 11↓ · 12 names · 7d basis
24 indicators in this sector·12 tickers tracked·← All sectors·Full universe explorer →

— Top movers · last 7 days —

Ranked by absolute price change. Refreshes every 15 min.
TLT
-1.80%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
IEF
-1.57%
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
EMB
-1.45%
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF

— Tickers we track in macro & rates —

Top 12 by market cap. Click to view per-ticker page with live news + related indicators.
BND-1.1%
Vanguard Total Bond Market In…
AGG-1.2%
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate B…
TLT-1.8%
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bon…
MUB-1.0%
iShares National Muni Bond ETF
IEF-1.6%
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bo…
LQD-1.2%
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Gr…
SHY-0.5%
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bon…
HYG-0.9%
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Co…
TIP-1.2%
iShares TIPS Bond ETF
EMB-1.4%
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerg…
JNK-0.9%
State Street SPDR Bloomberg H…
FXY+0.5%
Invesco CurrencyShares Japane…

— Latest macro & rates news —live

Live from Alpaca / Benzinga. Headlines mentioning BND, AGG, TLT…
No recent headlines for BND, AGG, TLT, MUB, IEF, LQD in the last 7 days.

— Voices on macro & rates —commentarylive

Curated commentary (Kobeissi, Doomberg, Lyn Alden, QuoteTheRaven, Pomp, ZeroHedge) mentioning BND, AGG, TLT… Opinion, not wire.
No recent commentary mentioning BND, AGG, TLT, MUB, IEF, LQD in the last 7 days.

— Flagship signals —

StandardmacroSP-4659

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (weekly)

6,711,495↑ 2%vs ~6 weeks ago
Total assets on the Fed's H.4.1 liquidity proxy, released Thursdays.
last fired 6.0 years ago

Historically, on fire days, SPY averaged -2.2% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 65% of the time.

Signature window1 yr
+8.8%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
48%
−0.03%
1 d
↓55%
−0.13%
1 wk
↓57%
−0.50%
1 mo
↓61%
−1.3%
3 mo
↓64%
−1.5%
6 mo
↓65%
−2.2%
1 yr
StandardmacroSP-4939

10Y minus 2Y Treasury yield spread

0.41↓ 23%vs ~6 weeks ago
Classic recession leading indicator inverted = trouble within ~12-18mo.
last fired 8 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -1.4% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 55% of the time.

Signature window6 mo(cell shown is 1 yr — Analyst tier shows the precise horizon)
+4.1%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
49%
−0.01%
1 d
↓52%
−0.06%
1 wk
48%
−0.18%
1 mo
↓53%
−0.40%
3 mo
↓55%
−0.69%
6 mo
↓55%
−1.4%
1 yr
Standardcurrencies_ratesSP-1013

US Dollar Index (DXY)

100.2↑ 1%vs ~6 weeks ago
Trade-weighted USD index.
last fired 3 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -0.34% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 55% of the time.

Signature window~9 mo(cell shown is 6 mo — Analyst tier shows the precise horizon)
+1.6%SPY 1 mo into the 6 mo window so far
49%
+0.00%
1 d
49%
−0.03%
1 wk
49%
−0.03%
1 mo
↓53%
−0.22%
3 mo
↓55%
−0.34%
6 mo
↓55%
+0.66%
1 yr

— All macro & rates indicators —