StandardPoorly
— Sector · serious —

Banking & Lending

Bank balance sheets, credit card delinquency, consumer lending.

Indicators tracking the health of the U.S. banking sector and the credit it extends to consumers and businesses. Includes major bank tickers (JPM, BAC, GS), commercial & industrial loan books from the Fed H.8 release, credit card charge-off and delinquency rates, money-supply aggregates (M1/M2), and regional-bank ETFs. When this sector lights up, watch financial-stress composites for the cross-signal.
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— Flagship signals —

Standardmarket_internalsSP-4908

HYG/LQD ratio (junk vs investment grade)

0.74↑ 0%vs ~6 weeks ago
High-yield ETF over investment-grade ETF credit appetite.
last fired 1.5 years ago

Historically, on fire days, SPY averaged -3.4% over the next six months — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 62% of the time.

−7.7%SPY over the 3 mo after the last fire
EXCEEDED HISTORY
48%
−0.04%
1 d
↓55%
−0.21%
1 wk
↓57%
−0.65%
1 mo
↓60%
−1.7%
3 mo
↓62%
−3.4%
6 mo
↓60%
−6.5%
1 yr
StandardcreditSP-2562

Banking Total Loans & Leases (weekly H.8)

13,900↑ 4%vs ~6 weeks ago
All commercial-bank loans outstanding, weekly.
last fired 3 months ago

When this fires, SPY averaged -5.1% over the next year — moving in the opposite direction as the signal 62% of the time.

+3.8%SPY 3 mo into the 1 yr window so far
OPPOSITE OF HISTORY
50%
+0.01%
1 d
↓54%
−0.11%
1 wk
↓56%
−0.46%
1 mo
↓60%
−1.4%
3 mo
↓61%
−2.6%
6 mo
↓62%
−5.1%
1 yr
StandardcreditSP-2994

Credit Card Delinquency Rate (quarterly)

2.92↑ 16%vs ~6 weeks ago
% of CC loans 30+ days past due, all commercial banks.
last fired 12.3 years ago

Historically barely better than chance over the next trading day.

−0.34%SPY over the 1 d after the last fire
50%
—
1 d
50%
—
1 wk
50%
—
1 mo
50%
—
3 mo
50%
—
6 mo
50%
—
1 yr

— All banking & lending indicators —