— Alt-data · real-estate distress · in partnership with NoticeAlpha —

The distress signals real-estate operators read first.

Foreclosure notices, lis pendens, NOD filings. Commercial property pain shows up in legal filings 6-12 months before it shows up in REIT earnings. NoticeAlpha aggregates them; we surface the macro pattern.

Phase 1 · partner integrationOperator-grade distress feed (real-time, full county detail, Elite slots) lives at noticealpha.com → This page becomes a live NJ heatmap + national index once the weekly sync lands.

What you get on each tier

Almanac · free	National distress index (single composite reading) + 5 flagship metros: Newark, Jersey City, Trenton, Camden, Atlantic City. Weekly refresh.
Analyst · $19 founder / $29 standard	NJ-wide market depth at 48-hour delay — matches NoticeAlpha's Standard tier ($129/mo) cadence. County-level filings, weekly time-series, downloadable CSV. Limited to NJ at launch.
Trader · $79 founder / $99 standard	Everything Analyst has + 1 free 72-hour NoticeAlpha Pulse trial per quarter (a $49 value each).
Need real-time? Full national? Elite-slot access?	That's NoticeAlpha's core product — Pulse $49 · Standard $129 · Elite Slots $99–399 →

Why distress notices lead the cycle.

Commercial real estate troubles surface in legal filings before anywhere else. A notice of default lands in the county clerk's office months before a missed earnings call, a year before a 10-K impairment, two years before the headline news. Operators who underwrite at the workout stage have been buying public legal-notice data for decades to time their offers.

NoticeAlpha aggregates public foreclosure notices, lis pendens filings, notices of default, and tax-sale lists across 47 states. The raw feed is built for operators. The macro signal — "commercial distress in the Northeast just jumped 31% week-over-week" — is what we surface here.

What this signal has predicted historically.

Office-CRE distress filings led the 2023 office-vacancy surge by ~7 months in the largest 20 MSAs (NoticeAlpha back-test, 2018-2023).
Residential lis pendens filings in NJ led the 2008 wave by 14 months in Essex County and 9 months in Hudson County.
Tax-sale roster sizes correlate with municipal budget stress at a 2-3 quarter lead — a leading indicator for muni bond spread blowouts in distressed townships.

Coming up here.

Weekly sync of aggregated NJ filing counts → NJ distress heatmap. (Q3 2026 target.)
National distress composite using NoticeAlpha's 47-state coverage. Becomes one constituent of the SP Macro Stress index.
Cross-correlation: NJ distress vs VNQ + XLRE. Already promising on the back-test set; needs a live data feed to publish properly.
Trader-tier Standard Poorly Letter (when published): "what the filing clerks are seeing" commentary.

Partnership disclosure: NoticeAlpha (Project Vulture) is a sister project to Standard Poorly. NoticeAlpha's real-time + Elite-slot products are not resold here at any tier — operators who need them should subscribe directly. The Trader-tier NJ taste exists to give SP readers a real feel for the data without cannibalizing NoticeAlpha's core operator pricing.