macroSP-0042

Initial Jobless Claims

Weekly first-time UI filings reported by the DOL.

the verdict —

At the 21d horizon, this signal hits in the predicted direction 64% of fires. Status: OOS validated. n = 1240. Bullish on the underlying when fired.

— Current state —

Latest value

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— What it has historically predicted —

On days when this signal fires, SPY has historically moved in the same direction as the signal 64% of the time over the next trading week.

↑55%

1 d

↑61%

1 wk

↑64%

1 mo

↑59%

3 mo

— Beyond SPY — how this signal performs across markets —

Same fire days, different forward returns. Each row asks: when this signal fires, what does that asset do? The big number is the average return; underneath is how often the asset moved the same direction as the signal (50% would be a coin flip).

target

1 d

1 wk

1 mo

3 mo

6 mo

1 yr

SPY

S&P 500 ETF

n=1,240

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55% same direction

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61% same direction

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64% same direction

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59% same direction

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shaded cell = each row's strongest horizon (green = bullish forward return, red = bearish)“same direction” means the asset moved the same way the signal moved — opposite of a coin flip.